Global Seasonal Climate Outlook: January–February–March 2026
The global climate outlook for January–February–March (JFM) 2026 points to a season shaped by lingering La Niña–like atmospheric patterns, even as ocean temperatures gradually move toward more neutral conditions.
Warming oceans, shifting sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients, and evolving large-scale climate drivers will collectively influence temperatures and rainfall across continents and oceans.
What the Oceans Revealed in Late 2025
During September–November (SON) 2025, global SSTs were largely above average, with one notable exception: the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Here, slightly cooler waters aligned with a weak La Niña, although a pronounced east–west temperature contrast across the Pacific sustained atmospheric behaviour typically associated with a stronger La Niña—most evident in rainfall patterns.
The extratropical North Pacific stood out as particularly warm, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained in a negative phase. This was driven by persistently warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the North Tropical Atlantic experienced above-average SSTs, contrasted by near-normal conditions in the South Tropical Atlantic. Warm anomalies also extended across much of the extratropical North Atlantic.
Oceanic Drivers: A Gradual Transition Ahead
Looking into JFM 2026, climate models suggest a weakening of cold SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific—signalling a slow transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions. However, warmer waters in the western Pacific are expected to persist, maintaining a strong east–west SST gradient that continues to reinforce La Niña-like atmospheric circulation.
The IOD is forecast to fade, edging closer to neutral conditions. In the Atlantic, slightly above-normal SSTs are expected to persist in the northern tropics, while the southern tropical Atlantic remains near average.
Temperature Outlook: Widespread Warmth Dominates
The multi-model ensemble for JFM 2026 indicates a strong global tilt toward above-normal land temperatures, especially across the Northern Hemisphere north of 30°N. High confidence signals emerge over southern and northeastern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, and the Arctic.
In contrast, weaker or inconsistent signals appear over northwestern North America, parts of Southeast Asia, and southeastern regions of the Indian subcontinent.
Across the Southern Hemisphere, above-normal temperatures are favoured over northern New Zealand and parts of southern South America near 30°S, while Australia shows only a modest leaning toward warmer conditions.
In the tropics, equatorial Africa and the Maritime Continent stand out with strong probabilities of above-normal temperatures, supported by solid model agreement. Over the oceans, warmth is projected to dominate the North Pacific, the North Atlantic between 10°–30°N, and the eastern Indian Ocean. Cooler-than-normal ocean conditions are largely confined to isolated pockets of the Southern Ocean near 60°S.
Rainfall Outlook: La Niña’s Imprint Persists
Despite the anticipated drift toward ENSO-neutral conditions, rainfall patterns for JFM 2026 continue to reflect a La Niña influence. Suppressed rainfall is expected across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, driven by the sustained east–west SST gradient. Near-normal rainfall probabilities emerge closer to the western coast of South America.
Beyond the Pacific, below-normal rainfall is favoured over southern North America, parts of eastern Asia, northeastern South America extending into the southern equatorial Atlantic, and the western Indian Ocean.
Conversely, above-normal rainfall probabilities increase over the western Pacific and nearby land areas, the Philippine Sea, northern North America, southern Central America into northwestern South America, the Caribbean, northern Europe, and northern Asia north of 50°N.
The Big Picture
The January–February–March 2026 climate outlook underscores a season of transition. While ocean temperatures are slowly steering the climate system toward ENSO-neutral conditions, atmospheric patterns—especially rainfall—continue to echo La Niña-like behaviour. The result is a globally warm season with regionally contrasting rainfall outcomes, reinforcing the need for climate-aware planning across agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.
