Trump’s Impact on the Paris Agreement Withdrawal: A Turning Point for Global Climate Policy

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, marked a historic effort to unite nations in combating climate change. By setting voluntary, nationally determined contributions (NDCs), it aimed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to restrict warming to 1.5°C.

However, the United States’ withdrawal under former President Donald Trump in 2020 significantly impacted global climate action and diplomacy.

The Decision to Withdraw

Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on June 1, 2017, citing concerns over its economic impact on the United States. He argued that the accord was unfair to American businesses and workers, claiming it imposed disproportionate burdens on the U.S. while benefiting competitors like China and India.

The withdrawal became official on November 4, 2020, making the U.S. the only country to step away from the accord at the time.

Trump’s reasoning reflected his broader skepticism of multilateral agreements and environmental regulations. His administration rolled back several Obama-era climate policies, including the Clean Power Plan, and emphasized fossil fuel production, especially coal, as part of his “America First” agenda.

Global Implications of the Withdrawal

Loss of Leadership: The U.S., the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, had played a crucial role in shaping the Paris Agreement under President Barack Obama. Its withdrawal weakened global momentum, as other countries looked to the U.S. for leadership and financial support.

Funding Gaps: Trump halted U.S. contributions to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), a critical mechanism to help developing countries adapt to climate change. This created a significant funding gap, affecting the ability of vulnerable nations to implement climate resilience measures.

Diplomatic Fallout: The decision strained relationships with key allies, including the European Union, which remained committed to the Paris Agreement. It also emboldened some countries to delay or weaken their climate commitments, undermining the accord’s collective ambition.

Rise of Subnational Actors: While the federal government stepped back, U.S. states, cities, businesses, and non-governmental organizations filled the void. Initiatives like the “We Are Still In” coalition and efforts by states like California demonstrated subnational leadership in climate action, keeping some U.S. commitments alive.

Domestic Impact

Trump’s withdrawal decision was met with widespread criticism from environmental groups, scientists, and a majority of Americans, as public opinion polls indicated growing concern over climate change. However, it resonated with his political base, particularly in regions reliant on fossil fuels, as it aligned with his pro-coal and deregulation agenda.

Key Impacts on the Middle East

Slowed Momentum for Regional Climate Action: The Middle East is already grappling with rising temperatures, desertification, and water scarcity, making climate adaptation crucial for its future. However, Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement dampened global climate momentum and provided less incentive for oil-exporting Middle Eastern nations to accelerate their energy transition.

Oil Dependency: Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE rely heavily on oil and gas exports. The U.S. exit signaled a reduced commitment to decarbonization, which reinforced the region’s focus on traditional energy sectors.

Limited Climate Commitments: Without strong international pressure, some Middle Eastern countries delayed ambitious climate targets. For instance, countries like Iran and Iraq, both heavily reliant on fossil fuels, remained hesitant to strengthen their commitments to renewable energy.

Environmental and Humanitarian Consequences

The Middle East is already experiencing extreme climate impacts, including prolonged droughts, rising sea levels, and more frequent heatwaves. The U.S. withdrawal undermined global cooperation to address these challenges.

Rising Temperatures: Without robust global efforts, the Middle East faces predictions of uninhabitable temperatures in parts of the region by the end of the century.

Humanitarian Crises: Climate-induced water scarcity and resource shortages exacerbate conflicts and migration. Trump’s withdrawal weakened global coordination on climate mitigation, leaving vulnerable populations in the Middle East exposed to these cascading crises.

A Catalyst for Global Resilience?

Ironically, Trump’s withdrawal may have strengthened global resolve. Countries such as China and the European Union redoubled their climate efforts, seeking to fill the leadership void left by the U.S. The agreement’s inclusive and flexible structure allowed it to endure despite the withdrawal of a major emitter.

Rejoining Under Biden

The U.S. reentered the Paris Agreement on February 19, 2021, under President Joe Biden, signaling a renewed commitment to global climate action. Biden’s administration pledged to cut U.S. emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, restoring confidence in international climate negotiations.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement represented a pivotal moment in global climate politics, highlighting the challenges of multilateral cooperation in addressing a shared existential threat. While it disrupted progress temporarily, it also underscored the resilience of the international community and the importance of sustained leadership in tackling climate change.

The episode serves as a reminder that climate action requires both global unity and unwavering commitment from the world’s largest emitters.