Green Revolution at a Crossroads: 9.6 Million New Jobs by 2030, But Risks Widening Global Economic Divides

The global push toward sustainability will upend the job market, creating a net 9.6 million new jobs by 2030 as industries shift away from fossil fuels and traditional sectors.

For every job lost to green policies, five new opportunities will arise, ranging from renewable energy to advanced manufacturing and circular economy roles. In total, 14.4 million jobs worldwide will be affected.

Uneven Gains: Barriers and New Divides

Despite the gains, the transition is far from universally positive. Over one-third of businesses worldwide, and nearly half in low-income economies, are concerned about job displacement.

Higher energy and commodity costs, regulatory burdens, and patchy access to green finance and technology risk making some countries and communities less competitive.

Crucially, 32% of businesses—rising to 49% in poorer nations—cite limited investment capacity and lack of access to green funding as critical barriers.

Business Under Strain: Rising Costs, Consumer Uncertainty

Energy and regulatory pressures are mounting as the world’s companies navigate both the promise and perils of the green shift.

About 37% of firms worldwide report escalating costs, with more than half anxious those rises will be passed on to consumers, threatening affordability for essential goods and services. In low-income markets, this concern is particularly acute, highlighting risks of deepened economic inequity.

New Tech, Familiar Gaps

Technological progress in green energy and industries isn’t spreading evenly. Many companies in developing countries struggle to access cutting-edge clean technologies and build the skilled workforce needed to support them, while their richer counterparts face regulatory complexities that slow down investments.

This divergence risks creating “technology divides” as stark as the economic ones.

Labour Market Disruption Ahead

Anticipated labour market shocks are not only about numbers. Even in countries expecting net gains, the transition could bring acute local disruptions, especially in regions dependent on fossil fuels or carbon-intensive industries.

One in three companies globally expresses concern about the risk of mass job losses in key industries unless social protection and economic development foundations are strengthened.

Country Archetypes: No One-Size-Fits-All

The report analyzes six national “archetypes” revealing stark differences in transition readiness:

• Inclusive Green Adopters (e.g., Australia, France, UK): They rapidly implement green techs but worry about higher costs and regulatory hurdles.

• Green Developers (China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, USA): They lead in tech innovation yet face challenges in accessing raw materials.

• Emerging Green Adopters (Italy, Türkiye): These industrial economies are less optimistic about the economic upside.

• Growth Economies (Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa): They juggle industrial growth with green investments and affordability concerns.

• Fossil Fuel Exporters (Saudi Arabia): They’re pursuing ambitious transformation but are hampered by skills gaps and slow returns.

• Frontier Economies (Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan): Severe skills and financing shortages demand urgent international support.

Making the Green Transition Work for All

Succeeding in the green transition demands a sharp focus on people and place-based strategies, not just policies. The report underscores that robust social safety nets and economic development go hand-in-hand with successful green reforms. Without these, the world risks hardening existing divides even as it tackles the climate crisis.

Corporate Strategies for a Just Transition

For businesses, the path forward means embedding social and economic impact assessments into climate action plans. Decision-makers are encouraged to look beyond compliance and innovation, considering the livelihoods and communities that stand to benefit—or lose—through each step toward a greener future.

The green transition presents a generational opportunity, but the outcome depends on intentional strategies that bridge gaps between countries, sectors, and workers. In the race to a sustainable future, inclusion isn’t just a moral imperative—it’s an economic necessity.