Tajikistan’s Melting Glaciers put Water Resources under Stress, UNEP Atlas Reveals

Climate change is putting pressure on Tajikistan’s water resources, making transboundary cooperation crucial, according to a new Atlas of Environmental Change for the country released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

Drawing on six decades of national and satellite data, the Atlas reveals that Tajikistan’s average annual temperature has already risen by 1.2°C – double the global average of 0.6°C – with the pace of warming having accelerated in recent decades.

Out of the country’s 14,000 glaciers, over 1,000 have already entirely disappeared and many small ones are expected to perish in the next 30-40 years. Meanwhile, the average air temperature in the Pamir Mountain Range is expected to increase 2.0°C by 2050 compared to today. This could cause the glaciers in the Pyanj and Vakhsh river basins to shrink by 75.5% and 53% respectively – significantly impacting freshwater supplies. Rising temperatures also mean runoff in the Amu Darya River basin would likely decrease by about 30% compared to the average of the past decade. This could further increase pressure on water resources both within Tajikistan and across Central Asia, the Atlas finds.

Between 2020 and 2023, Tajikistan experienced 1,826 natural disasters — including flooding, mudslides and avalanches — leading to more than 100 deaths and over US$30 million in economic losses, the Atlas finds. Each year, the country records 500 to 600 emergencies, 90 per cent of which are linked to natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches.

“This Atlas provides vital evidence to support Tajikistan in confronting the effects of climate change and environmental degradation,” said Arnold Kreilhuber, Director of UNEP’s Europe Office. “By visualising these effects, the Atlas empowers decision-makers to protect natural resources, reduce disaster risks, and pursue sustainable development.”

Water resources, which supply up to 95 per cent of the country’s electricity through hydropower, are identified as one of Tajikistan’s most vulnerable sectors. The Atlas highlights the importance of integrated water resource management and transboundary cooperation to safeguard this critical lifeline.

Tajikistan is also recognised as a global biodiversity hotspot, having the highest density of species per unit area among Central Asian countries. Protected areas have expanded from representing 3.6 per cent of the country’s territory in 1991 to 21.6 per cent in 2023, encompassing four reserves, 13 nature refuges, and three national parks.

The Atlas is available in print and through an interactive Geoportal, which provides open access to up-to-date, science-based environmental data. The Geoportal will enable policymakers to use and continually update information to take climate action and report against international agreements, including the Rio Conventions and the Sustainable Development Goals. Initially launched in Russian, the Atlas will also be made available in Tajik and English to broaden access for policymakers, researchers and the wider public.

The project also covers the Kyrgyz Republic, whose Atlas was published earlier this year; and Uzbekistan, whose Atlas is currently under preparation.