The automotive industry’s aggressive rush toward artificial intelligence is set for a dramatic slowdown. According to new forecasts from Gartner, Inc., a leading global provider of business and technology insights, only 5% of automakers will continue investing heavily in AI by 2029, a steep decline from more than 95% engaged in strong AI investment today.
“The industry is currently in a phase of AI euphoria—where many companies are chasing breakthrough value without first building the fundamentals required for AI success,” said Pedro Pacheco, VP Analyst at Gartner. “But this euphoria will give way to disappointment as organizations fail to meet the ambitious expectations they set.”
Gartner’s analysis suggests that only a small group of automakers will remain committed to large-scale AI initiatives over the next five years. Those with mature software capabilities, leadership teams with solid technology acumen, and a long-term AI vision are expected to surge ahead—creating a widening AI readiness gap across the industry.
“Software and data lie at the heart of AI,” Pacheco added. “Automotive companies that already excel in these areas have a significant advantage. Similarly, automakers led by tech-forward executives are more likely to prioritize AI over traditional industry concerns.”
Beyond investment trends, the industry is also approaching a major operational breakthrough. Gartner predicts that by 2030, at least one major automaker will achieve full vehicle assembly automation, marking a transformative moment in automotive manufacturing.
“The race toward complete automation is intensifying,” said Marco Sandrone, VP Analyst at Gartner. “Nearly half of the world’s top automakers—12 out of 25—are already testing advanced robotics in their production facilities. Automated assembly lines can lower labor costs, enhance quality, and significantly shrink production cycle times.”
For consumers, such advancements could translate into higher-quality vehicles delivered faster and at potentially reduced prices.
While full automation may reduce direct labor requirements on the assembly line, Gartner notes that new employment opportunities will emerge in AI supervision, robotics maintenance, and software development—provided that automakers invest adequately in reskilling and workforce transition programs.